Democrats are targeting seven Republican-held House districts that Hillary Clinton won: Districts 10 and 21 in the Central Valley; District 25 in Los Angeles County; Districts 39, 45 and 48 in Orange County; and District 49 in Orange and San Diego counties. Keep a close eye on Districts 39 and 48, where the sheer number of Democratic candidates has party officials scared that two Republicans will advance on the back of a splintered Democratic vote.
Iowa’s First District is overwhelmingly white, which would tend to pull it to the right based on national voting patterns — but it’s also mostly urban, with large population centers in Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Waterloo, which would tend to pull it to the left. The result is a highly competitive re-election campaign for Representative Rod Blum, a Trump-supporting Tea Party Republican and House Freedom Caucus member. Four Democrats are running to challenge him, foremost among them State Representative Abby Finkenauer.
Three Democrats are seeking to challenge Representative David Young in the Third District, which includes Iowa’s largest city, Des Moines. They are Pete D’Alessandro, who led Bernie Sanders’s caucus campaign in Iowa, and two small-business owners: Cindy Axne and Eddie Mauro. If none of them reach 35 percent of the vote, the party will hold a convention, a prolongation of the nominating process that the candidates would prefer to avoid.
Democrats are hotly pursuing Montana’s only House seat, currently held by Greg Gianforte. The top Democratic candidates in terms of fund-raising are John Heenan, a lawyer in Billings, and Grant Kier, a former nonprofit director. In the first quarter of 2018, though, Mr. Gianforte raised more money than all his Democratic challengers combined.
The Second District, in South Jersey, would not be a Democratic target in a normal year, but Democrats believe this year’s anti-Trump energy gives them a chance. The incumbent, Frank LoBiondo, is retiring, and four Democrats and five Republicans are running to replace him. The Democratic race is interesting as a microcosm of a national tussle: It pits Jeff Van Drew, a conservative Democrat who might appeal more in such a Republican-leaning district in November, against Tanzie Youngblood, a progressive.
Representative Leonard Lance, the incumbent in the Seventh District, is highly vulnerable thanks to anti-Trump sentiment, even though he is a moderate Republican who voted against his party’s tax plan and voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. He isn’t likely to face much trouble from his Republican primary challengers, so the real action on Tuesday is in the Democratic primary, where the former Obama administration official Tom Malinowski is running against Peter Jacob, who lost to Mr. Lance in 2016.
The 11th district, being vacated by Representative Rodney Frelinghuysen, attaches heavily Democratic areas of Essex County to Republican-dominated Morris County, creating a seat that has been reliably Republican until this year. The Democratic front-runner is Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and prosecutor backed by Joe Biden; she is running against the former social worker Tamara Harris and three others. On the Republican side, State Assemblyman Jay Webber is running against Antony Ghee and Peter De Neufville.
The Second District, which sprawls across almost 72,000 square miles, has long been a Republican stronghold, but it’s vulnerable this year with Representative Steve Pearce leaving to run for governor. Four Republicans are pursuing the seat, including State Representative Yvette Herrell, whom the New Mexico Republican Party endorsed over its former chairman Monty Newman. The Democrats have two candidates: Xochitl Torres Small, a lawyer supported by Emily’s List and the state party, and Madeline Hildebrandt, a Coast Guard veteran.